Barack Obama.
But not by a whole lot, it seems. As you can see by the polls from one week ago, Barack Obama has gone up by a single point in CNN's Poll of Polls. He's gained a point in the RCP average as well, and McCain has lost almost a point. So Sen. Obama has a semi-comfortable six-point lead now.
What is more significant is where he seems to be making those leads. It appears that his biggest gains have been in the states where he's needed them: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and even North Carolina. North Carolina was not even thought of as a possibility to turn blue, but the race is tied at the moment.
Still, there's a month left before the election. Let's see what happens.
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