Sept. 13 Tropics Report

Ike at 3PM CDT, 9/13/08

Tropical Storm Ike (Yes, it's been downgraded!!!) is now moving to the east of Dallas with top winds of 60mph. It made landfall at 2AM local time, right over Galveston. So far, there are four deaths related to the storm, which is miraculous considering how many people remained in their homes. There does seem to be widespread, but not catastrophic damage.

Downtown Houston got the broken glass they expected. In the JP Morgan Chase building, the windows blew out, and office furniture was blown over to the parking structure across the street.

As Ike dissipates, it will merge with a frontal system and bring plenty of rain to the already-drenched Midwest.

Otherwise, the tropics are quiet, especially for this time of year.

Sept. 12 Tropics Report

Hurricane Ike is still bearing down on the north Texas coast, now with 110mph winds. The center is still 90 miles offshore, but the storm surge has been flooding Galveston Island for hours. Most of the Texas and Louisiana coast are experiencing tropical storm force gusts now, if not sustained winds.

The core of the storm is not far off now. The weather should really start disintegrating soon.

The approximate path that Ike is heading on. This will take it just to the west of Galveston, a worst-case scenario for the city.

Other than Ike, not much brewing in the tropics aside from a couple of shower clusters in the Atlantic.

Tropical Alert: Galveston Flooding

This isn't the main tropical report for the day - that's coming up. I've got CNN on in the background, and while Hurricane Ike is still 8-10 hours from landfall, and they're only getting the outer rain bands so far...but the issue is the storm surge, which could reach 20-25 feet. The waves are already so high, that they're coming over Galveston's seawall, flooding this city of 58,000.

The scary part? An estimated 15,000 residents decided not to heed the mandatory evacuations, and now face a very real risk of drowning in their homes. :(

Main tropical report coming later this afternoon.

Sept. 11 Tropics Report

Ike at 4PM CDT, 9/11/08

Hurricane Ike hasn't changed much in the past 24 (OK, 27) hours. Ike is still a Category 2 hurricane packing 100mph winds. It's also a HUGE storm, covering an area in the Gulf from Florida to Cancun to New Orleans.

What HAS changed is the projected path of the storm. Now, the track has shifted back northward, with the Cone Of Uncertainty reaching from Corpus Christi to Cameron, LA. right in the middle lie Galveston and Houston, which would get a direct hit based on this path.

Ike's projected path as of Sept. 11, 2008. The line goes about 30 miles from Galveston and Houston, but could strike as far as 150 miles away in either direction.

Sadly, that means that a lot of people who were affected by Katrina have to go through this all over again. Houston is where a great deal of Katrina survivors settled, including people who were stuck in the Superdome.

It also means that oil rigs are going to be shut down for a while.

The Galveston area is already under an evacuation order, as this article discusses. If you live in or near this area, PLEASE be on alert. We may have a Category 3 or 4 storm before this is all said and done.

Tropical Alert: Warnings Issued On Lousiana, Texas Coasts

The National Hurricane Center has just issued a hurricane watch for the Gulf coast between Cameron, LA and Port Mansfield, Texas, or almost the entire Texas coast. This means that the exact location of the actual landfall is still anyone's guess at this point. It also means, as you've seen in my earlier report, that this is a big storm with a huge wind field. Anyone within 200 miles from the center of the storm's track will have at least Tropical Storm force winds and extremely heavy rainfall. A Tropical Storm warning extends east to the mouth of the Mississippi River, but does not include New Orleans (they should get some decent rains in any case).

The one silver lining is that this storm should track just far enough south to prevent an oil scare.

Sept. 10 Tropics Report

Ike at 2PM EDT, Sept. 10, 2008

Hurricane Ike continues its slow move across the Gulf of Mexico today. Winds increased slowly overnight from 75mph to 90mph, but the last advisory gave Ike a boost to 100mph winds. The forecast still calls for a landfall around Fri/Sat, somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston, as a Category 3 storm with 125mph winds. There's still a chance the storm could stay to the south of Corpus Christi, which is very sparsely populated.

Projected landfall of Ike near Corpus Christi. The entire Texas coast lies within the cone of uncertainty.

Sept. 9 Tropics Report

Ike at 2PM EDT, Sept. 9, 2008

The only thing in the tropical Atlantic being watched now is Hurricane Ike, which is now moving over western Cuba as a minimal hurricane with 75mph winds. This is a huge storm - it's outer cloud bands range from Florida to Cancun. Squalls with tropical storm force winds have been reported in the Keys and the Miami area as well.

Ike should cross over into the Gulf of Mexico by evening, but don't be surprised if it's briefly downgraded to a Tropical Storm before moving over the warm (29-31C) open waters of the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is predicting a Category 3 storm before hitting somewhere along the Texas coast - though it is still far too early to tell where the final landfall will be.

Sept. 8 Tropics Report

The main storm in the Atlantic right now is Hurricane Ike, which crossed over a not-so-mountainous section of eastern Cuba overnight, and is now about 40 miles off Cuba's southern coast. As you can see in the photo below (click to enlarge), the storm is deviating a little south of its projected path.

Ike moving to the south of Cuba by about 40 miles.

So what does this mean? For one thing, Ike did weaken, but only by about 25mph from its landfall, making it a Category 2 storm with 100mph winds. Now that the storm is over water that is around 30C, it should begin to reorganize today, and possibly strengthen over the next 24 hours or so as it makes a slight turn to the right and heads on a path much like Gustav's path in late August:

Ike's projected path over the next 72 hours. Both Havana and the Isle of Youth are in the "cone of uncertainty", and Key West, FL lies just outside the cone. The Florida Keys are currently under a Tropical Storm Warning.

Remember, Gustav exploded into a Category 4 storm while taking a path just to the left of this. If Ike stays far enough offshore, anything could happen. It should lose a little punch over western Cuba before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, it's anyone's call. The forecast has it heading towards Galveston, TX (near Houston), but the way the forecasts have been shifting to the left with each advisory, it could hit as far south as Corpus Christi.

Too early to tell how the oil rigs will be affected.

UPDATE: It has been found that Ike has reduced to a Category 1 storm with 80mph winds. This means that western Cuba won't get hit has hard as eastern Cuba, unless it explodes, Gustav-style. However, the forecasters are not expecting more than a slight strengthening at most. Stay tuned!

Sept. 7 Tropics Report

Tropical Storm Hanna raced up the US East Coast yesterday, moving over 700 miles in 24 hours before merging with a frontal system off the New England coast. It did what a Nor'easter would typically do, and brought heavy rains, flooding, gale force winds, and some light damage and power outages.

Hanna's path, September 6, 2008

With Hanna out of the way, we now have Hurricane Ike to worry about. This morning, it went over the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 4 storm with 135mph winds. Grand Turk is reporting 50% of their structures damaged. This storm is headed right towards Cuba, and is forecast to move directly over the island.

Projected Path of Ike, to 72 hours out.

On it's current path over land, Ike will probably lose about half of its punch before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to go back to Category 3 status (at least). However, Cuba is only about 50-60 miles wide on average, which means a 30-mile jog north or south will make a huge difference as far as how strong the storm will be in 2 days.

If you are in the Florida Keys or the entire Gulf coast, please watch this storm carefully. It looks as if another Gustav or Katrina has the potential to take shape.

Sept. 6 Tropics Report

As interpreted from several sites, such as the National Hurricane Center, Weather Underground (the weather site, not the 1970's anarchist group site. ;) ), and The Weather Channel.

Tropical Storm Hanna is racing up the US East Coast, currently going over Virginia, and packing winds of 50mph. It'll pretty much follow I-95 all the way up the coast, and over the Canadian Maritimes by tomorrow. What this is shaping up to be is the summer version of a Nor'easter.

Hurricane Ike is becoming less of a threat to the Miami area and more of a threat to the Gulf Coast as it moves west-southwestward through the Caribbean with winds of 110mph. It's forecast to strengthen back to a Category 3 before hitting Cuba...if it hits Cuba. How strong the storm will be when it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico depends on how much it interacts with land when it gets near Cuba.

Tropical Storm Josephine has dissipated and is no more.

Sept. 5 Tropics Report

As interpreted from several sites, such as the National Hurricane Center, Weather Underground (the weather site, not the 1970's anarchist group site. ;) ), and The Weather Channel.

Tropical Storm Hanna is now off the coast of Georgia, and rapidly heading for a landfall around the NC/SC border, with 70mph winds. Hanna is forecast to slowly weaken as it races up the US East Coast, bringing heavy rains and strong winds from South Carolina to eastern Canada over the next couple of days. The main nuisance from Hanna should be flooding, and watches/warnings are currently up in 15 eastern states.

Hurricane Ike is east of the Bahamas this evening, moving westward, and sporting winds of 115mph. This storm is expected to regain some of its old strength and regain Category 4 status as it approaches the southern tip of Florida by Tuesday or so. I'll follow up with more detailed updates as we get closer.

Finally, Tropical Storm Josephine is way out in the Atlantic with 40mph winds. This is one of those storms that is destined to stay out in the open waters. No problems except for ships and fish.