Sept. 8 Tropics Report

The main storm in the Atlantic right now is Hurricane Ike, which crossed over a not-so-mountainous section of eastern Cuba overnight, and is now about 40 miles off Cuba's southern coast. As you can see in the photo below (click to enlarge), the storm is deviating a little south of its projected path.

Ike moving to the south of Cuba by about 40 miles.

So what does this mean? For one thing, Ike did weaken, but only by about 25mph from its landfall, making it a Category 2 storm with 100mph winds. Now that the storm is over water that is around 30C, it should begin to reorganize today, and possibly strengthen over the next 24 hours or so as it makes a slight turn to the right and heads on a path much like Gustav's path in late August:

Ike's projected path over the next 72 hours. Both Havana and the Isle of Youth are in the "cone of uncertainty", and Key West, FL lies just outside the cone. The Florida Keys are currently under a Tropical Storm Warning.

Remember, Gustav exploded into a Category 4 storm while taking a path just to the left of this. If Ike stays far enough offshore, anything could happen. It should lose a little punch over western Cuba before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, it's anyone's call. The forecast has it heading towards Galveston, TX (near Houston), but the way the forecasts have been shifting to the left with each advisory, it could hit as far south as Corpus Christi.

Too early to tell how the oil rigs will be affected.

UPDATE: It has been found that Ike has reduced to a Category 1 storm with 80mph winds. This means that western Cuba won't get hit has hard as eastern Cuba, unless it explodes, Gustav-style. However, the forecasters are not expecting more than a slight strengthening at most. Stay tuned!