Sept. 9 Tropics Report

Ike at 2PM EDT, Sept. 9, 2008

The only thing in the tropical Atlantic being watched now is Hurricane Ike, which is now moving over western Cuba as a minimal hurricane with 75mph winds. This is a huge storm - it's outer cloud bands range from Florida to Cancun. Squalls with tropical storm force winds have been reported in the Keys and the Miami area as well.

Ike should cross over into the Gulf of Mexico by evening, but don't be surprised if it's briefly downgraded to a Tropical Storm before moving over the warm (29-31C) open waters of the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is predicting a Category 3 storm before hitting somewhere along the Texas coast - though it is still far too early to tell where the final landfall will be.

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John McCain Gets His Post-Convention Boost

After trailing far behind opponent Barack Obama for a week or so, John McCain has officially gotten his post-GOP convention bounce. Senator McCain is showing a 3-point lead, which is close to a statistical tie, but still a lead. As you can see below (click to enlarge), the results vary wildly from poll to poll:

National poll results for Sept. 8, 2008

As you can see, Senator McCain has taken the lead from Senator Obama in all major polls. What could be causing such a jump? Well, there's always the post-convention bounce. Barack Obama got his after the Democratic convention, and now it's McCain's turn.

It does seem that the country is somewhat more enthused with McCain, but is it McCain at all? Let's face it: this whole past week, ten days even, has been about Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin, Bristol Palin, Sarah Palin, and some more Sarah Palin. Could Americans be intrigued with this unlikely choice of a Vice-Presidential candidate?

No matter which candidate you're supporting (and it looks like we've got mostly Obama/Biden supporters here so far :) ), it's too early to predict any kind of an outcome. It won't be until Sept. 26, after the first Presidential debate, when we'll even have the faintest idea. Stay tuned!

Sept. 8 Tropics Report

The main storm in the Atlantic right now is Hurricane Ike, which crossed over a not-so-mountainous section of eastern Cuba overnight, and is now about 40 miles off Cuba's southern coast. As you can see in the photo below (click to enlarge), the storm is deviating a little south of its projected path.

Ike moving to the south of Cuba by about 40 miles.

So what does this mean? For one thing, Ike did weaken, but only by about 25mph from its landfall, making it a Category 2 storm with 100mph winds. Now that the storm is over water that is around 30C, it should begin to reorganize today, and possibly strengthen over the next 24 hours or so as it makes a slight turn to the right and heads on a path much like Gustav's path in late August:

Ike's projected path over the next 72 hours. Both Havana and the Isle of Youth are in the "cone of uncertainty", and Key West, FL lies just outside the cone. The Florida Keys are currently under a Tropical Storm Warning.

Remember, Gustav exploded into a Category 4 storm while taking a path just to the left of this. If Ike stays far enough offshore, anything could happen. It should lose a little punch over western Cuba before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, it's anyone's call. The forecast has it heading towards Galveston, TX (near Houston), but the way the forecasts have been shifting to the left with each advisory, it could hit as far south as Corpus Christi.

Too early to tell how the oil rigs will be affected.

UPDATE: It has been found that Ike has reduced to a Category 1 storm with 80mph winds. This means that western Cuba won't get hit has hard as eastern Cuba, unless it explodes, Gustav-style. However, the forecasters are not expecting more than a slight strengthening at most. Stay tuned!

I Prefer Jill Sobule To Katy Perry

I remember earlier this summer, when I heard that a young singer named Katy Perry had a big hit with a song called "I Kissed A Girl". If you're one of the twelve people who haven't seen it, here it is:

There. That wasn't so bad, was it? It's a hell of a lot better than most of the crap that's being spewed out there lately. However - and call me old-fashioned if you must - but I cannot help but prefer a 1995 song by Jill Sobule by the same name. The video was very 90's, and even had Fabio! Check it out for yourself:

Maybe I'm getting old, but this is how I see it:

Jill Sobule's "I Kissed A Girl" = Playfully naughty romp into the exploration of one's lesbianism. "I kissed a girl, it felt like kissing me!"

Katy Perry's "I Kissed A Girl" = I kissed a girl, and it tasted like Jagermeister, cocaine, and bile. It's a wonder I have any memories of it.

You know?

Sept. 7 Tropics Report

Tropical Storm Hanna raced up the US East Coast yesterday, moving over 700 miles in 24 hours before merging with a frontal system off the New England coast. It did what a Nor'easter would typically do, and brought heavy rains, flooding, gale force winds, and some light damage and power outages.

Hanna's path, September 6, 2008

With Hanna out of the way, we now have Hurricane Ike to worry about. This morning, it went over the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 4 storm with 135mph winds. Grand Turk is reporting 50% of their structures damaged. This storm is headed right towards Cuba, and is forecast to move directly over the island.

Projected Path of Ike, to 72 hours out.

On it's current path over land, Ike will probably lose about half of its punch before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to go back to Category 3 status (at least). However, Cuba is only about 50-60 miles wide on average, which means a 30-mile jog north or south will make a huge difference as far as how strong the storm will be in 2 days.

If you are in the Florida Keys or the entire Gulf coast, please watch this storm carefully. It looks as if another Gustav or Katrina has the potential to take shape.